Ping An of China (601318) In-depth Research 北京夜网 Report: Crossing the Bull and Bear Value Model
Ping An Group was born in Shekou, Shenzhen, with a “reform and innovation” gene. It has developed into an integrated group today through endogenous growth and outreach M & A.
Ping An Group has the second-largest life insurance company and property insurance company in the industry. The quality of life insurance business is ahead of the industry, and the product structure is constantly optimized and stable. The profit rate of property insurance advantages is higher than that of its peers. The market share has steadily increased under the fierce market competition; The financial control layout provides a cross-selling basis, and the internal business synergy is obvious, and the value of financial licenses is prominent; actively deploy Internet finance, build a pan-financial ecosystem, and move from finance to finance + technology dual-wheel drive.
Life and health insurance is a very good track, and the industry is in the golden period of development.
The population and economic structure support the future development of the medical and health industry, and the insurance industry and its upstream and downstream industrial chains benefit.
The increase of artificially controlled income, the aging of the population and the increase in medical expenditures are the three main driving factors driving the development of China’s insurance and medical and health services industries.
Ping An Life and Health Insurance businesses have long adhered to the strategy of value management and adhered to the product concept of “insurance surname insurance”. The business value and scale continued to grow rapidly.
The leading layout of the health care industry has emerged in related fields.
The growth rate of the value of life insurance in the next ten years is expected to be 15-20%.
Ping An’s core competitiveness comes from the strategic tension and determination of core leaders, which is an advantage in governance structure.
In the course of development, the strategy has precipitated the technology worship of channels, brands, platforms, organizations, cultures, and even from “insurance + banking + investment” to “finance + technology”.
In terms of the product layout of life insurance and health insurance, Ping An has always had a clear mindset. The industry has experienced the overwhelming dividend insurance, the rise of universal insurance, and the ups and downs of terminal products. However, Ping An has always continued its own strategic thinking and has never needed it.Make a big transformation.
Long-term accumulation has formed a stable trust for customers and agents, and the company itself has greatly reduced management difficulties and the attendant friction costs.
Fintech is in full swing, waiting to be shocked.
At the end of 2018, Ping An converted the text of the Group’s Logo from “Insurance, Banking, Investment” to “Finance, Technology”, reflecting the potential changes in the company’s strategy: In the future, technology will consolidate half of Ping An.
Ping An’s fintech business has two parts: one is the construction of an ecological circle, and the other is the development and application of technology.
With Ping An’s traditional financial business as its core, life insurance, property insurance, banking, and investment each radiate five mutually supporting ecosystems: financial services, medical and health, automotive services, housing services, and smart cities; and in terms of technology, artificial laborIn order to study the three core technology areas of quasi-intelligence, blockchain, and cloud, it supports the construction and implementation of the ecosystem.
Optimistic expectations are heading towards a 3 trillion market cap.
Compared with AIA, Ping An Life Insurance is not inferior to the average growth rate of EV and NBV, but its stability is poor. With reference to the estimated level of AIA, we believe that Ping An Life Insurance can give 2 times the estimated level of PEV, corresponding to the 2019 annualThe life insurance business is worth 75 yuan.
Other businesses use comparable company law segment estimates and give a 10% liquidity discount.
In the next three years, without considering the growth of Ping An’s technology business and the replacement of platform value, relying solely on the financial business, Ping An will have a reasonable market value of 2 in 2021.
4 trillion, with a budget value of 133.
5 yuan, while the technology business only contributed 170.7 billion.
This estimate is the lower limit of Ping An’s future value, and greater 淡水桑拿网 flexibility and growth comes from the explosion of technology business value. Under optimistic expectations, the technology business enters the process of quantitative change to qualitative change and contributes to Ping An Group’s 500 billion market value.3 trillion market value.
Crossing bulls and bears, value role models, and holding are the best strategies.
We estimate that the possible embedded value of Ping An of China in the next 3 years is 65, 76 and 89 yuan, and the target price for 2019 is 104 yuan based on the segment estimation method, corresponding to a PEV of 1.
6 times, raised to “strong push” level.
Risk warning: the economy is down, interest rates are falling more than expected; consolidation changes; insurance demand release is lower than expected.