Huamao Logistics (603128): Interim report slightly exceeds expectations
The interim report slightly exceeded expectations, maintaining an “overweight” rating of 2Q19, and the company realized revenue of 24.
180,000 yuan (+7.
2%), net profit attributable to mother 1.
1.8 billion (+11.
9%), slightly exceeding our expectations of 1.
We maintain the company’s 19/20/21 profit forecast at 0.
48 yuan, corresponding to the current expectation of 20.
6X PE; Considering M & A expectations, the company is given 22-24X PE for 19 years with a target price range of 8.
75 yuan to maintain the “overweight” level.
The second quarter performance improved month-on-month, the interim report slightly exceeded expectations in 2Q19, and the company realized revenue of 24.
180,杭州桑拿000 yuan (+7.
2%), the growth rate increased by 6pp; the gross profit was 3.
1.3 billion (+8.
6%), the growth rate increased by 8pp MoM; net profit attributable to mother 1.
1.8 billion (+11.
9%), the growth rate increased by 23.
5pp, and slightly more than we expected 1.
1.5 billion; net profit after deduction to mother 1.
1.9 billion (+15.
6%), the growth rate increased by 14 compared with the previous quarter.
The gross profit growth of freight forwarding business was sluggish, and the improvement of non-forwarding business gross profit was still the company’s main source of profit. However, due to the global economic situation and Sino-US trade friction, the growth was significant.
In the first half of the year, the company achieved gross profit5.
6.2 billion (+4.
9%), of which gross profit of freight forwarding business3.
880,000 yuan (+7.
5%), gross profit of non-forwarding business1.
7.5 billion (-0.
In the freight forwarding business, air transportation revenue and sea transportation revenue fell twice respectively.
78% and an increase of 19.
86%, revenue from air transportation increased for the first time in 14 years, and core business operations were under pressure. The outbound acquisition is reasonable and expected to increase performance. On August 22, 2019, the company announced its intention to acquire 70% of the equity of Da’an International and Xuncheng International Air Freight Forwarding Business Group at a transaction consideration of approximately 6.
190,000 yuan (corresponding to a profit of about 8 in 18 years.
The target company is estimated to be reasonable and able to form synergy with the company’s cross-border e-commerce business.
As of 1H19, the company’s asset-liability ratio was only 24.
7%, monetary funds of about 1.2 billion, leverage has increased.
Assuming that the company completes the acquisition in cash, based on the 5% cash interest rate and the underlying 18-year profit estimate, it is expected to increase the company’s profit by 53 million yuan (14% of the 19-year forecast net profit).
Equity incentives have been released, and compound profit for exercise has increased by 15%. On April 22, 2019, the company increased its value to 5.
82 yuan / share grants 30 million equity incentives to 246 objects, covering the core executives of listed companies and major molecular companies.
According to the three-year exercise conditions (33% / 33% / 34% of exercise rights), the company’s compound growth rate of profits from 17 to 19/20/21 exceeded 15%; the distribution incentive coverage is wide and the incentive conditions are designedReasonable, can fully bind the interests of shareholders and shareholders.
The estimate is reasonable. Maintaining the “overweight” rating of China Trade Logistics’s slightly higher-than-expected report, excluding the thickening of outbound M & A performance, we maintain the company’s 19/20/21 0.
48 yuan profit forecast, corresponding to the current expectation of 20.
Comparable logistics enterprises corresponding to 19/20 Wind expected PE 16.
3X; Considering the outbound M & A expectation, we give Huamao Logistics 22-24X PE for 19 years (earlier estimated industry premium of 31% -43%) with a target price range of 8.
75 yuan (previous value was 10.
66 yuan), maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk reminder: Global economic forecast, UHV investment exceeds expectations, and outbound M & A falls short of expectations.