Pian Tsai Ying (600436) Review of major events: single largest price increase since listing 2020 performance promotion usher in an explosion
Matters: On January 20, 2020, the company issued an announcement that, for the main raw materials and labor costs of Pien Tze Huang products, the company decided to increase the retail price of Pien Tze Huang tablets to 590 yuan / capsule from the date of announcement.The price is increased by about 40 yuan / cap; the supply price in overseas markets is increased by about 5.
$ 80 per capsule.
Comment: The price increase is expected to directly increase the net profit of returnees in 20202.
0 ‰, 14 per year.
In the in-depth report of Pien Tze Huang released on January 14, 2020, we predicted that in 杭州夜网 2020, the domestic price of the “Pien Tze Huang Series” will increase by about 6%.
The price increase is 11.
9%, slightly higher than our expectations.
According to our Pianzai price increase model, the ex-factory price increased by 40 yuan to 375 yuan, an increase of 11.
9%. In 2020, the sales of the “Pien Tze Huang Series” will be about 577.
10,000 tablets, an increase of 18.
8%, strengthen the logic of rising volume and price.
Increased channel enthusiasm (10-year value-added of channel profits).
3%) to strengthen the logic of penetration enhancement.
The profit before the price increase was 195 yuan.
The price increase of 60 yuan this time, channel profits increased by 20 yuan, an increase of 10 a year.
3%, channel enthusiasm is enhanced, which is conducive to the improvement of national penetration.
According to our calculations, across the country, the demand for “Pien Tze Huang Series” liver disease drugs has penetrated into zero.
13%, 6% from 1% permeability.
7 times improvement space.
Infiltration and transformation under the demand of health care and self-use1.
98%, 4% from 10% permeability.
1x improvement space.
In mature markets in Fujian Province, the penetration rate of “Pien Tze Huang Series” liver disease medication demand is only 1.
76%, higher than the national average of 0.
13%, 4% from 10%.
7 times improvement space.
The target price for 2020 is 125.
5 yuan increased to 146.
Taking into account the higher than expected price increase this time, strengthening the logic of rising volume and price, and increasing the penetration rate, and combining our previous in-depth report judgment on the company’s fundamentals, the industrial core product “Pien Tze Huang series” has obvious advantages.There is ample supply of raw materials, and there is room for competitive improvement in penetration across the country.
We raise the company’s profit forecast and increase the operating income growth rate to 20 in 19-21.
7% (previous forecast 21).
5%), increasing the net profit growth rate to 25.0%, 37.
5% (previous forecast was 24.
3%), corresponding to PE is 53, 39, 32 times.
At the same time meeting the company’s price increase expectations to drive performance improvement, we raised the company’s PE estimate in 2020 is 45 times (the original value of 43 times), corresponding to the target price of 146 yuan (origin target price of 125 yuan), maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk reminders: 1) The supply of raw materials is reduced; 2) The merger and adjustment bring changes in the company’s strategy.