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Jiuyuan Yinhai (002777): IT Leader of People’s Livelihood Ushers in a High Boom Cycle

Jiuyuan Yinhai (002777): IT Leader of People’s Livelihood Ushers in a High Boom Cycle

The leading domestic smart people’s livelihood and military-civilian integration service provider company originated from the China Academy of Engineering Physics and is essentially controlled by the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

The company focuses on the four strategic directions of medical and medical insurance, digital government affairs, smart cities, and military-civilian integration. It is aimed at government departments and industry ecological subjects, and empowers people’s livelihood and national defense with information technology, big data applications and cloud services.

Since listing in 2015, the company’s operating income CAGR has been 24.

31%, CAGR of net profit attributable to mother is 27.

53%, the growth rate is better than before listing.

Since 2012, except for 2016, the company’s net operating cash flow has been greater than net profit, and its operating quality is high.

Medical insurance IT is about to usher in the construction peak After the establishment of the National Medical Insurance Bureau, the “Guiding Opinions on Medical Security Informatization Work” was issued, which clarified the national medical insurance “building a system, building a two-tier platform, improving three levels, and highlighting four types of applications”Informatization master plan and deployment.

The company is a leading informationization company in the medical insurance industry and is currently providing effective services for the stable operation of the medical insurance core business system in more than 10 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and nearly 100 prefecture-level cities across the country.

The company won the second and eighth packages of the National Medical Insurance Bureau ‘s medical security information platform construction engineering business application software procurement project. In the future, it will have obvious advantages in the construction of provincial medical insurance systems.

The first phase of the Jinmin Project is fully promoted. According to the requirements of the Ministry of Civil Affairs, by 2020, the informatization coverage of major businesses at the ministry level will reach 100%, and the informatization coverage of the major businesses of provincial civil affairs departments will reach 80%.The online transaction rate reached over 80%.

In August 2019, the Ministry of Civil Affairs issued the “Pilot Work Plan of the Jinmin Project Phase I Project”.

The company won the bid for the “Jinmin Project Phase I Application Support Platform Development Integration Project” to realize another major breakthrough in the “2 + 3” new military and civilian strategy in the field of people’s livelihood.

With advanced technology and experience in the field of Jinmin Engineering, the company is expected to obtain orders from provincial civil affairs departments to promote sustainable development.

Investment advice and profit forecast The construction of new medical insurance information system at the provincial and municipal level is expected to be fully launched in 2020. The civil IT construction represented by Jinmin Engineering has also been expanded, and the company is conducive to full use.

The company’s operating income is expected to be 10 in 2019-2021.

45, 13.

43, 17.

06 million yuan, the net profit attributable to the mother is 1.

49, 1.

99, 2.

63 trillion, EPS is 0.

67, 0.

89, 1.

17 yuan / share.

In the past three years, the company’s PE has mainly run between 40-80 times, and the computer (Shenwan) index currently has a PE of 62.

0 times, considering that the company promotes accelerated growth in the fields of medical insurance IT and civil IT, given a target PE of 55 times, the target price is 48.

95 yuan, currently 37.

48 yuan, space is about 30.

60%, recommended for the first time, give “Buy” rating.

The risk reminds that the bidding progress of the provincial and municipal medical insurance system exceeds expectations; the construction progress of DRGs exceeds expectations; 北京夜生活网 there are many bidders for the Jinmin Project, and market competition is intensified; the government’s ability to pay is insufficient, affecting the company’s cash flow.

A notice issued by the State Council of the People’s Government of the People’s Republic of China detonated A shares: the daily limit of more than 100 shares stopped and even these positives

A notice issued by the State Council of the People’s Government of the People’s Republic of China detonated A shares: the daily limit of more than 100 shares stopped and even these positives

A big news, A shares soared 1.

5 trillion!

Over one hundred shares daily limit, at least these are positive.
Source: China Fund reported a “Notice” issued by the State Council and the State Council, detonating A trillion growth today.

  On June 10, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council jointly released the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Issuance of Special Bonds by Local Governments and Supporting Financing of Projects” (the “Notice”).

  Among them, the proposal allows “special bonds to be used as eligible major project capital”, and “actively encourages financial institutions to provide supporting financing support”, which broadens the scope of the use of existing special debt as supporting funds, and has attracted market attention.

  Today’s A-share market grew “enthusiastically” in response to the aforementioned documents.

  The daily limit of more than 100 shares: A stock market value surged 1.

The news of 53 trillion supporting infrastructure detonated A shares.

  Affected by the above news, this morning A shares opened higher all the way, led by infrastructure stocks, brokers, brewers charge, the market is fully upward.

In the final close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.

58% to close at 2925.

72 points, back above 2900 points; the Shenzhen Component Index closed up 3.

74%, GEM Index rose 3.

91%.

141 stocks in the two cities rose, and the stocks rose across the board.

  Even the price rose sharply, and the volume was obviously increased. The turnover of the two cities reached 556.5 billion US dollars, a substantial increase from the previous trading day.

Kitakami Capital also bought 73 heavily.

700 million.

  At the close today, the total market value of A shares reached 52.

53 trillion, 51 trillion at the close earlier, a surge of 1.

53 trillion yuan.

  Infrastructure stocks broke out. Liquor Charge charged “for allowing special bonds to be used as eligible major project capital”, Hua Chuang Securities Research reported that it can increase capital by 100-200 billion and leverage 4-7 times, and may eventually leverage newIncrease infrastructure investment 0.

4 trillion-1.

4 trillion.

  The direct benefit of infrastructure construction stocks has also become a large backbone of today’s growth.

Infrastructure stocks rose the most, with building materials up 5.

27%, construction machinery rose 4.

99%, construction and industrial machinery also rose more than 4%.

  In the plate, more than 20 stocks such as Yaopi Glass, Qingsong Jianhua, Oriental Garden, Dagang Road Machinery, Chinalco International, China Academy of Sciences, Qilian Mountain, etc.

Leading stocks, Conch Cement, China Construction rose more than 4%, China Communications Construction rose 5.

22%, China Railway Construction rose 6.

72%.

  Brokerage stocks, as a market vane, are also growing violently today5.

35%, Harbin Investment, Hualin Securities, China Galaxy and many other stocks daily limit, liquor stocks also rose more than 5%.

  China Central Office, State-owned Office “Enlarged Recruitment” to Promote Investment On June 10, the General Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council jointly issued the “Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Issuance of Local Government Special Bonds and Supporting Project Financing” (referred to as the “Notice”)” “).
  Among them, the proposal allows “special bonds to be used as eligible major project capital”, and “actively encourages financial institutions to provide supporting financing support”, which broadens the scope of the use of existing special debt as supporting funds, and has attracted market attention.

  After the release of this high-profile document, relevant persons in charge of the six ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Finance, the Development and Reform Commission, the People’s Bank of China, the Audit Office, the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and the Securities and Futures Commission issued a question and answer for a more specific explanation.
  Relevant persons in charge of the six ministries and commissions stated that the “Circular” revolves around the goal of using reforms to resolve contradictions and problems in development, and in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, distinguishes financial support standards reasonably, highlights funding support priorities, provides supporting financing support, and broadens major issues.In terms of project capital channels, guaranteeing debt repayment responsibilities, etc., we propose systemic policies and measures to support the financing of special bond projects. They not only play a leading role in increasing the effective investment of special bonds, but also firmly adhere to the bottom line of risk prevention and control, and effectively protect the economy.Healthy development is sustainable.
  Special debts can be used as capital for major projects. Infrastructure investment is expected to drive an additional 7 points. The notice attracts the most attention from the market: special bonds are allowed to be used as eligible major project capital.

  Terrorism, because special debt is debt funds and cannot be used as project capital, this time has been relaxed, but the main 苏州夜网论坛 broadened areas are concentrated in the infrastructure part, and high-voltage lines for the prevention and control of hidden debts still exist.

“For the special bond support, which is in line with major central decision-making and deployment, and has the effect of continuous demonstration, the major projects are mainly nationally supported railways, national highways, and local highways that support the promotion of major national strategies.In the case of assessing project income and repaying the special bonds after the principal and interest of the special bonds increase financing conditions, some special bonds are allowed to be used as a certain percentage of project capital, but must not be excessively financed beyond the actual level of project income.

“But at the same time, the document also clearly states that” resolutely do not take the path of disorderly borrowing for construction “,” resolutely prevent the increase of hidden debts “,” resolutely hold lifelong accountability and accountability for borrowing new debts “.

  The market generally believes that this move will alleviate the problem of insufficient capital for major infrastructure projects, highlighting the proactive fiscal policy to further increase efficiency and is the latest alternative to the Chinese government’s stimulus for fixed asset investment and economic stability.

  Analysis by Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities, means that the special debt can be used for infrastructure funds of about 200 billion to 400 billion yuan, which can increase capital by about 100-200 billion, which can magnify 4-7 times leverage, and additionally pullInfrastructure investment 2.

2 supplements to around 7 additional.

  First of all, there are still 1 remaining to add special debt.

3 trillion, considering that the proportion of special debt in the designated infrastructure direction is about 15-30% (according to the issuance rhythm since the beginning of the year, the proportion of land storage and shed reform uses is as high as about 70%), then the special debt can be used for the infrastructure partThe funds are about 200 billion to 400 billion.

  Because only major projects that meet the requirements of the document can be used as capital, assuming that half of the special debt debt used for infrastructure funds belongs to major projects, the capital can be increased by about 100-200 billion.

  Leverage has two vertical angles. The first one is direct transfer. According to the capital requirements of existing infrastructure projects, about 20-25%, so the leverage is 4-5 times. The second is the actual replacement, which is based on the capital investment / budgetary capital ratio.Looking at the actual leverage, it is currently about 7 times.

So leverage is between 4-7 times.

  It can increase capital by 100-200 billion, leverage 4-7 times, and finally may leverage 0 to supplement infrastructure investment.

4 trillion-1.

4 trillion.
(Considering that the yields of many major projects are not high, and other funds are not expected to participate strongly, the actual leverage can hardly reach 4-7 times, and the offset here is optimistic.

) Assuming that the capital and supporting funds for leveraging infrastructure investment land proportionally (that is, according to the forecast of the full-pull scenario), considering that the size of infrastructure investment in 2018 is about 18 trillion yuan, additional infrastructure investment will be driven2.

2 supplements to around 7 additional.

  The market generally believes that this is the primary reason for the surge in infrastructure today.

  Encouraging financial institutions to provide matching financing scale, the market also pays attention to a key point: The Notice actively encourages financial institutions to provide matching financing.

That is, the project can be financed by a combination of special debt and market-based financing (such as loans), and project income is managed by separate accounts.

  Specifically, the “Notice” proposes that, in response to the implementation of enterprise-oriented operation and management projects, bank institutions are encouraged and guided to use project loans and other methods to support the construction of special bond projects that meet the standards.

Encourage insurance institutions to provide financing support for the construction of long-term special bond projects that meet the standards.

Project units are allowed to issue corporate credit bonds and support special bond projects that meet the standards.

  However, entities and financial institutions conducting market-based financing need to comply with relevant regulations.

The “Notice” is still being revised. The project unit shall cancel the hidden debt in any way, the market-oriented transformation has not been completed, and the financing platform company whose stock of hidden debt has not been resolved shall not be used as the project unit.Make prudent decisions and resolutely prevent and control risks.

  In addition to allowing special bonds as eligible major project capital and actively encouraging financial institutions to provide supporting financing support, the Notice also recommends that a reasonable distinction be made between financial support special bond project standards, precise key areas and major projects, and ensuring maturity.Debt repayment responsibilities to support the financing of special bond projects.

  Infrastructure industry chain investment opportunities attract attention Many securities firms have expressed concern about investment opportunities in the infrastructure industry chain.

  GF Securities said that the uncertainty of the external environment has increased recently, and the coherence and regulation of countercyclical policies have gradually increased.

The introduction of this policy will help improve the margins of financing channels, and the growth of infrastructure investment in the second half of the year will promote a gradual recovery.

The company recommends paying attention to three main lines: 1) Overweighted infrastructure investment is expected, which is good for front-end testing / design companies with high growth performance and low-profile infrastructure central enterprises; 2) The completion of real estate improvement is good for the improvement of the performance of residential full decoration companies;Opportunities that combine performance topics such as transformation.

  Minsheng Securities suggested focusing on structural opportunities in the infrastructure industry chain.

Since the early days of construction, the growth rate of the steel industry has ranked among the top two in the Shenwan Tier 1 industry, and it has a clear performance advantage compared to other industries.

The ratio of public offering and foreign allocation in the infrastructure industry chain is also in a severely underweight state.

The market ‘s expected growth in policy space and policy expectations has promoted the introduction of special debt issuance policies, which has a more pronounced expectation on the infrastructure industry chain.

At the same time, in the face of uncertainty in trade frictions, the infrastructure industry chain is obviously defensive.

Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to the structural opportunities of the infrastructure industry chain.

Jingfeng Mingyuan (688368): Talent and patent integration Moat smart lighting prospects look promising

Jingfeng Mingyuan (688368): Talent and patent integration Moat smart lighting prospects look promising

Founded in October 2008, Jingfeng Mingyuan is a leading domestic power management driver chip design company.

Its main business is the development and sales of power management driver chips. The company’s products mainly include LED lighting driver chips, motor driver chips and other power management driver chips.

Main point of view: Relying on talents and patent moats, the power management chip leading company has grown up early.

The core competitiveness of the analog chip industry lies in artificial design and experience accumulation. In the development of more than 10 years, Jingfeng Mingyuan builds a moat based on talents and patents, with a per capita of up to 400 million per year, which has become the leading power source in ChinaManagement Chip Company.

In the next three years, the general LED lighting business revenue will grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 9%.

Under the dual factors of penetration rate and real estate post-cycle, the growth rate of general lighting LED from China in the next 3 years is expected to further change; considering the international market penetration rate for further growth, we expect general lighting LED from 2019-2021 Driver chip revenue was 6.

14/6.

71/7.

5.3 billion, with a gross profit of 1.

15/1.

27/1.

4.5 billion.

Technical advantages and average price boost embrace intelligent lighting, and the average annual compound growth rate of revenue in the next three years is about 33%.

We estimate that the revenue from smart LED lighting driver chips for 2019-2021 will be 1.

69/2.

19/2.

0.94 million yuan, an increase of 35 in ten years.

12% / 29.

61% / 34.

33%.

The gross profit is 0.

65/0.

82/1.

0.6 million yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.

56% / 25.

37% / 28.

52%.

Profit forecast and estimation: The company’s operating income for 2019-2021 is expected to be 8.

52/9.

68/11.

37 ppm, an increase of 11 years.

16% / 13.

57% / 17.

52%, net profit attributable to mother is 0.

85/武汉夜网论坛0.

99/1.

22 ppm, a ten-year increase4.

92% / 15.61% / 23.

twenty three%.

Covered for the first time and given a “Neutral” rating.

In the long run, we believe that the company’s growth path will gradually realize the development path of Texas Instruments, the leader in analog chips. With the continuous enrichment of product lines of core human resources, the long-term net profit potential is expected to reach 700 million US dollars.

Risks prompt macroeconomic downturn, intensified trade wars, increased industry competition, systemic risks, etc.

Ping An of China (601318) In-depth Research Report: Crossing the Bull and Bear Value Model

Ping An of China (601318) In-depth Research 北京夜网 Report: Crossing the Bull and Bear Value Model

Ping An Group was born in Shekou, Shenzhen, with a “reform and innovation” gene. It has developed into an integrated group today through endogenous growth and outreach M & A.

Ping An Group has the second-largest life insurance company and property insurance company in the industry. The quality of life insurance business is ahead of the industry, and the product structure is constantly optimized and stable. The profit rate of property insurance advantages is higher than that of its peers. The market share has steadily increased under the fierce market competition; The financial control layout provides a cross-selling basis, and the internal business synergy is obvious, and the value of financial licenses is prominent; actively deploy Internet finance, build a pan-financial ecosystem, and move from finance to finance + technology dual-wheel drive.

Life and health insurance is a very good track, and the industry is in the golden period of development.

The population and economic structure support the future development of the medical and health industry, and the insurance industry and its upstream and downstream industrial chains benefit.

The increase of artificially controlled income, the aging of the population and the increase in medical expenditures are the three main driving factors driving the development of China’s insurance and medical and health services industries.

Ping An Life and Health Insurance businesses have long adhered to the strategy of value management and adhered to the product concept of “insurance surname insurance”. The business value and scale continued to grow rapidly.

The leading layout of the health care industry has emerged in related fields.

The growth rate of the value of life insurance in the next ten years is expected to be 15-20%.

Ping An’s core competitiveness comes from the strategic tension and determination of core leaders, which is an advantage in governance structure.

In the course of development, the strategy has precipitated the technology worship of channels, brands, platforms, organizations, cultures, and even from “insurance + banking + investment” to “finance + technology”.

In terms of the product layout of life insurance and health insurance, Ping An has always had a clear mindset. The industry has experienced the overwhelming dividend insurance, the rise of universal insurance, and the ups and downs of terminal products. However, Ping An has always continued its own strategic thinking and has never needed it.Make a big transformation.

Long-term accumulation has formed a stable trust for customers and agents, and the company itself has greatly reduced management difficulties and the attendant friction costs.

Fintech is in full swing, waiting to be shocked.

At the end of 2018, Ping An converted the text of the Group’s Logo from “Insurance, Banking, Investment” to “Finance, Technology”, reflecting the potential changes in the company’s strategy: In the future, technology will consolidate half of Ping An.

Ping An’s fintech business has two parts: one is the construction of an ecological circle, and the other is the development and application of technology.

With Ping An’s traditional financial business as its core, life insurance, property insurance, banking, and investment each radiate five mutually supporting ecosystems: financial services, medical and health, automotive services, housing services, and smart cities; and in terms of technology, artificial laborIn order to study the three core technology areas of quasi-intelligence, blockchain, and cloud, it supports the construction and implementation of the ecosystem.

Optimistic expectations are heading towards a 3 trillion market cap.

Compared with AIA, Ping An Life Insurance is not inferior to the average growth rate of EV and NBV, but its stability is poor. With reference to the estimated level of AIA, we believe that Ping An Life Insurance can give 2 times the estimated level of PEV, corresponding to the 2019 annualThe life insurance business is worth 75 yuan.

Other businesses use comparable company law segment estimates and give a 10% liquidity discount.

In the next three years, without considering the growth of Ping An’s technology business and the replacement of platform value, relying solely on the financial business, Ping An will have a reasonable market value of 2 in 2021.

4 trillion, with a budget value of 133.

5 yuan, while the technology business only contributed 170.7 billion.

This estimate is the lower limit of Ping An’s future value, and greater 淡水桑拿网 flexibility and growth comes from the explosion of technology business value. Under optimistic expectations, the technology business enters the process of quantitative change to qualitative change and contributes to Ping An Group’s 500 billion market value.3 trillion market value.

Crossing bulls and bears, value role models, and holding are the best strategies.

We estimate that the possible embedded value of Ping An of China in the next 3 years is 65, 76 and 89 yuan, and the target price for 2019 is 104 yuan based on the segment estimation method, corresponding to a PEV of 1.

6 times, raised to “strong push” level.

Risk warning: the economy is down, interest rates are falling more than expected; consolidation changes; insurance demand release is lower than expected.

BTG Hotel (600258) Interim Review: Steady Growth and Continuous Upgrade

BTG Hotel (600258) Interim Review: Steady Growth and Continuous Upgrade
Event: BTG Hotel released its 2019 Interim Report, and the company’s revenue in 19H1 was 39.90 billion / -0.30%, net profit attributable to mother 3.6.8 billion / + 8.14%, net profit after deducting non-return to mother 3.36 billion / + 6.22%, non-recurring gains and losses mainly come from government subsidies and investment income related to comma Cayman.In Q2, the company achieved revenue of 20 in a single quarter.4.7 billion / -1.5%, net profit attributable to mother 2.9.4 billion / + 11%, net profit after deduction to mother 2.79 billion / + 8.31%. Opinion: During the asset-light expansion period, the growth rate of profit is greater than the growth rate of revenue.Revenue: 19H1 company achieved 39 revenue.90 billion / -0.30% of which hotel 37.400 million / -0.48% (such as home contribution 33.1.2 billion / -0.57%), attractions 2.50 billion / + 2.55%.Total profit: 19H1 company realized total profit 5.5.7 billion / + 5.88%, of which hotel 4.3.8 billion / + 5.67% (4 as home contribution.9.8 billion / + 5.54%), attractions 1.19 billion / + 6.66%.Net profit attributable to mother: 19H1 company achieved net profit attributable to mother 3.6.8 billion / + 8.14%, of which Home Inns contributed 3.5.2 billion / + 6.89%, Nanshan Scenic Area contributed 66.85 million equity profits / + 6.13%.(1) Due to the acceleration of the franchise opening of the hotel business, which is directly managed by the net closing of the hotel business, the hotel revenue is basically flat, but the profit is growing steadily.(2) Financial expenses continued to decline, accounting for 68.75 million yuan / -21 in 19H1.14%, financial expense ratio 1.7% /-0.33 points. There were 159 new stores opened in Q2, and 234 new stores opened in H1. 29 of the gradual opening plans were completed.3%. In Q2, 2/157 new stores were opened directly under the direct management / joining, and 28/43/36/52 were opened in economy / mid-end / cloud hotels / others; 103 were closed, including direct management / joining13/90 closed stores, 63/12/5/23 closed economy / mid-to-high end / cloud hotels / others; 56 open stores, of which 11/67 opened directly / joined, economical/ High-end / Cloud Hotel / Other net opening -35/31/31/29 respectively.The company opened its stores with high-profit franchise mid-end stores as its participation (29 net openings in Q2) and closed stores with its franchise economy stores as its participation (24 net closings in Q2).As of 19Q2, the company had a total of 4,117 hotels and 689 reserve stores; the company’s mid- to high-end accounted for 18.3% / QoQ increased by 0.1pc, direct sales accounted for 22.1% / QoQ decreased by 0.6 points. The same-store RevPAR continued to decrease, and the decrease in retention rate narrowed month-on-month.The company changed the data display caliber, merged all the hotels of BTG Rujia to copy the overall operation data (separately copied the operation data of the stores such as Jiajia and BTG stores), and separately copied the operation data of cloud hotels.According to the latest disclosure caliber, the same store RevPAR decreased by 3 in 19Q2.6% (Economy / Mid-end / Cloud Hotel decreased by 3 respectively.9% / 3.2% / 5.1%), with house prices falling by 1.1% (Economy / Mid-end / Cloud Hotel decreased by 1 respectively.3% / 1.3% / 1%), the occupancy rate decreased by 2.1pct (Economy / Mid-end / Cloud Hotel decreased by -2 respectively.2pct / -1.4pct / 3.1pct).Sino-U.S. Trade wars have been repeated, and the macroeconomic growth rate has been affected by the high base of 18H1. The growth rate of the same store RevPAR continued to shift, but the dwell rate decreased and narrowed compared with Q1. Home Inn NEO continued to upgrade and 杭州桑拿网 cooperated to launch new brands.(1) As of 19H1, the company has completed Home Inn NEO3.0 Renovation of 286, of which 236 directly operated stores / 33 of the total number of economic direct stores.6%, 50 franchise stores.(2) The company cooperated with Hyatt to launch a new mid-to-high-end brand “Yiyi”. The first batch of direct-operated stores is expected to open in the first half of 2020.(3) In cooperation with Chunqiu Group, the airport chain hotel brand “Jiahong” with aviation and travel characteristics was jointly established. The first flagship store was officially opened at Hongqiao Airport at the end of June. Investment suggestion: Hotel leader’s safety margin is strong & investment value is increasing.In terms of value, the hotel leader has barriers, large growth space and strong certainty; from the point of view 无锡桑拿网 of price, it is currently estimated to be at the bottom of history and cost-effective; from the point of cashing in, the economic stabilization is expected to catalyze the hotel stock market and recommend layout.It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 19-21 will be 86.7.1 billion / 89.3.1 billion / 93.3.5 billion, net profit attributable to mothers was 9 respectively.3.9 billion / 11.07 billion / 13.4.2 billion, corresponding to PE is 17 times / 14 times / 12 times.Maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: Macroeconomic risks, store development is less than expected.

Oriental Pearl (600637): Revenue slightly expects to return to growth

Oriental Pearl 武汉夜生活网 (600637): Revenue slightly expects to return to growth

2018 and 1Q19 results are in line with expectations. Oriental Pearl announced its 2018 results: operating income of 136.

3.4 billion, down 16.

2%; net profit attributable to mother 20.

1.5 billion, down 9.

9%; deduct non-net profit 9.

70 trillion, down 0.

13%.

At the same time, 1Q19 results and 25 operating income were announced.

1.7 billion, down 8.

15%; net profit attributable to mother 5.

62 trillion, with an increase of 28.

63%; deduct non-net profit 2.

6.2 billion, down 23.

58%.

Development Trends The business optimization structure was adjusted, and the positioning of the four major industry segments was clear.

In 2018, the company continued to promote the creation of a converged media platform, and completed the reorganization of the four major segments of media network, film and television entertainment, video shopping, and cultural travel consumption, respectively, to achieve revenue of 30.

90,000 yuan (YoY-39.

11%, mainly due to Aide Siqi consolidation factor) / 12.

800 million (+ 9% year-on-year.

94%) / 69.

400 million (YoY-5.

24%) / 21.

800 million (YoY-10.

17%).

We believe that the direct connection between the transformation business segment and the business group, and the company’s segments are committed to achieving stable and good development and return to the growth trend.

Expenses are steadily decreasing, and operations are expected to continue to be optimized.

In 2018, the company’s sales expenses decreased by 6 every year.

18% to 7.

68 ppm, excluding Iddsker’s consolidation factor, decreases by 1 per year.

6%, mainly due to the annual reduction in delivery and distribution costs; management costs (excluding research and development costs) decreased by 2 each year.

96%, excluding Aidesiqi’s consolidation factor, the rate is declining1.

4%, mainly due to reductions in leasing costs and staff budget expenditures; R & D costs each decreased by 12.

83%, mainly due to the reduction of labor expenditures for R & D personnel; financial costs were converted from -55.47 million yuan -1.

360,000 yuan, mainly due to increased interest income and exchange gains.

While adjusting its business, the company has optimized the organization’s performance, effectively controlled expenses, and improved profitability.

The construction of “entertainment +” ecological industry chain is of great significance, but the short-term performance growth is relatively weak.

The company’s existing existing inventory, content and product advantages and industrial chain innovation resource advantages, leveraging OPG cloud as the core systematic intelligent means to create a unified converged media platform.

This will contribute to the company’s long-term development and enhance the industry-level substance, but its short-term contribution to the company’s profits is still relatively limited. Based on the above analysis, we lower our 2019 / 20e return to our net profit forecast13.

5% / 18.

5% to 21.

21 ppm / 22.

30,000 yuan.

Estimates and recommendations currently sustainably correspond to 19/20 years18.

4/17.

7x P / E, maintain neutral rating and target price of 10.

2 yuan, corresponding to the 16th of 19 years.

5x P / E, potentially 10% downside.

Risks Macroeconomic fluctuations affect demand for art and literature, and competition for video and broadband services is intensifying.

Transsion Holdings (688036): African Market Maintains Profitability and India’s Operating Conditions Improve

Transsion Holdings (688036): African Market Maintains Profitability and India’s Operating Conditions Improve

Event On January 16, 2020, Transsion Holdings issued an announcement of the 2019 annual results pre-increasing announcement. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company in 2019 will be 167,037.

120,000 yuan?
188,210.

620,000 yuan, an increase of 101,299 over the same period last year.

320,000 yuan?
122,472.

820,000 yuan, an annual increase of 154.

10%?
186.

31%.

It is expected that in 2019, the net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company in place of non-recurring gains and losses will be 140,644.

240,000 yuan?
161,817.

740,000 yuan, an increase of 18,206 over the same period last year.

830,000 yuan?
39,380.

330,000 yuan, an increase of 14 in ten years.

87%?
32.

16%.

Brief comment one, the African market continues to maintain expanding profitability, and the Indian market’s operating conditions have improved. This year, Transsion Holdings continued to maintain its changing profitability in the African market.

According to IDC data, Transsion Holdings continued to increase its city share in the African market in 2019. At the end of the third quarter, its market share in the African market exceeded 50%, and it has a higher market control area and premium capabilities.

In 2019, Transsion maintained continuous profitability in the African market, and the average unit price and gross profit margin were both higher than before.

In the African market, Transsion has covered the full range of user groups through three major mobile phone brands, TECNO, itel, and Infinix, and has a high brand reputation.

After years of accumulation in the African market, Transsion has established channel resources for deep cooperation and a perfect service system. At the same time, Transsion has developed deep face recognition, oil and water resistance based on the localized features of the African market.With unique barriers to competition.

In the future, Transsion is expected to continue to improve ASP and profitability through superior market segmentation.

In the current year, Transsion Holdings has optimized the product structure and reduced the impact of tariffs on the Indian market.

Due to the fierce competition in the Indian market, the profits of various mobile phone manufacturers in India have been hit by breakthroughs. In 2018, Transsion’s business in the Indian market alternated aggressively, and profits were affected by conflicts. In 2019, due to the reduction in tariffs, and the reduction of delivery opportunities, etc., Reducing expected margins and improving profits.

In the future, through further adjustment of strategies and strategic focus, Transsion’s business development in the Indian market will further improve.

Second, the impact of foreign exchange gains and losses on 2018 net profit increases the increase in attributable profits in 2019. Since Transsion’s overseas sales mainly use US dollars to collect payments, in order to lock forward the RMB / USD exchange rate and avoid foreign exchange risks, the company purchased since the beginning of 2018.Foreign exchange forward contract products, but due to the impact of the Sino-U.S. Trade war since May 2018, the US dollar has appreciated rapidly against the RMB, and the foreign exchange forward contract products purchased by the company have losses during delivery.

In 2018, the company purchased 77,907 foreign exchange forward contract products.

320,000 yuan, affecting the fracture of the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company in 2018.

At present, the company’s forward contracts have all been completed, which will have little impact on future profits.

Earnings forecast: We will give Transsion Holdings 17E net profit for 2019E / 2020E / 2021.

75/21.

22/23.

4.4 billion, with a price-earnings ratio of 28/28/25.

The company is of high quality and still has potential for growth.
Risk Warning: The development of new markets is worse than expected, and Internet users and 武汉夜生活网 revenue growth are lower than expected.

Halma Technology (002595) In-Depth Report-Strong Wind Power Demand, Competitive Advantage Extends New Field

Halma Technology (002595) In-Depth Report-Strong Wind Power Demand, Competitive Advantage Extends New Field
Introduction to this report: The wind energy price is approaching, and funding for the wind power casting industry is sought.The company’s competitive advantage extends from molds to wind power castings, and new business grows rapidly. Key points of investment: Conclusion: The coming of wind price and rapid increase of installed capacity; seeking funding for wind power casting industry, expected volume and price to rise.The company’s competitive advantage is extended, and its production capacity is expected to further increase in the future, benefiting from the expansion of wind power demand.We maintain our judgment that the EPS for 2019-21 will be 1.13, 1.29, 1.45 yuan, maintaining a target price of 25.8 yuan, the increase of wind can be priced, the wind power casting industry for alternatives.① The advent of wind energy prices, increasing installed capacity to promote rapid growth.Construction costs have dropped, wind power has been replenished, and grid parity has been introduced.GWEC expects that in the next two years, the global wind power installations are expected to increase to more than 65GW; in 2019, the global new installations will increase by 27%.② The demand for wind power castings is gradually increasing, and the average annual market size is 10 billion yuan.The wind power casting industry will put forward the pursuit of expectation, which is expected to usher in both volume and price.③ The global wind power casting production capacity is concentrated in China, and the competition pattern has improved marginally. The extension of competitive advantages, from molds to wind power castings, new business has grown rapidly.① The company’s competitive advantage extends from molds to gas turbines to 杭州桑拿网 wind power castings.The tire mold business is thriving, and its profitability has significantly surpassed its peers.The company integrates casting and processing, and through the accumulation of customers of gas turbine parts processing, it has further obtained wind power casting orders from GE and Siemens, mainly producing wheels, bases and other products. ② The marginal improvement of the competition pattern of wind power castings. The company’s current market share is about 5%, the throughput is constantly increasing, and the demand for wind power is expanding.③ The marginal impact of future cost increases is limited, and gross margin is expected to stabilize and recover.Compared to molds, the company’s casting and large-scale parts processing business is more sensitive to the cost of raw materials, and the profit outlook is repaired. Catalyst: Obtain orders from major global customers. Core risks: risks of fluctuations in raw material prices and risks of exchange rate fluctuations.

Supor (002032) 2018 Annual Report Review: A Model for Steady Operation

Supor (002032) 2018 Annual Report Review: A Model for Steady Operation
Matters: The company released the 2018 annual report.At the beginning of 18 years, the company realized operating income of 178.51 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.75%; net profit attributable to mother 16.70 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.91%; achieve a basic EPS of 2.04 yuan / share, an increase of 25 in ten years.88%.Among them, the operating income in the fourth quarter was 44.580,000 yuan, an increase of 20 in ten years.78%; realized net profit attributable to mother 5.650,000 yuan, an increase of 37 in ten years.51%.  Comment: The synergy advantage of SEB is obvious, and the effect of category expansion is obvious.The company achieved operating income of 178 in 2018.51 ppm, +22 for ten years.75%. In the case of a high base in 2017, the company has accelerated its revenue end, and its performance has continued to achieve steady growth.1) By region, the company achieved domestic sales revenue of 131 in 2018.09 million yuan, ten years +28.26%, mainly due to the upgrading of domestic consumption and the continuous improvement of the company’s product power; the export side benefited from the continued transfer of overseas SEB orders, and achieved export income of 47 in 2018.42 trillion, ten years +9.73% in 2019 is expected to further play a synergy with SEB.2) In terms of categories, the income from cooking utensils and appliances was 58.19 billion, 118.6.6 billion, each year +17.41%, +25.86%.In the cookware market, the company continues to carry out product development and upgrade to maintain the market share of traditional superior categories. In the electrical appliance market, the company has launched environmental appliances such as vacuum cleaners and air purifiers in response to the trend of healthy living.The company’s future performance continues to grow.  Steady profitability and excellent cash flow.The company achieved maximum profit in 201819.82 ppm, an increase of 24 in ten years.74%, net profit attributable to mother 16.70 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.91%, maintaining 南京夜网 double-digit rapid growth.Benefiting from the continuous upgrade of product structure, the company’s actual gross profit margin in 2018 was 30.86%, an increase of 1 from last year.3 points.In terms of cost, the period cost rate is +1 per second.4 points to 19.92%.Among them, since the budget incentive costs in this period have increased compared to the previous period, the management expense ratio (including R & D) is increased by +1 each time.26 points to 4.19%; sales expense ratio is ten years +1.76pct to 15.76%.With the future of the company’s three high-end brands, KRUPS, LAGOSTINA, WMF, cookware and small household appliances, the company’s gross profit margin will continue to grow.In terms of cash flow, the net cash flow from operating activities increased by 82 compared with the same period last year.88% was mainly due to the increase in cash inflows from operating activities for sales of goods and receiving labor services. The company’s cash flow performance was excellent.  The leading shape of life and home has emerged, and high-end brands may become important growth engines.At present, the company conducts multi-brand, multi-category layout in the kitchen field, and actively explores new categories such as household appliances, and continuously realizes the transition from the role of kitchen appliances to household appliances.At present, the company’s domestic household electrical appliances business has maintained a sustained and healthy development. According to China Yikang monitoring data, Supor’s offline market share of ironing machines has become the industry’s number one since September 2018.In terms of brand matrix, the company vigorously develops high-end brands. In 2018, the company achieved full coverage of high-end brands mainly based on WMF, KRUPS, and LAGOSTINA.  18 years is the first year of high-end brand integration. At present, channel integration is mainly used to improve operational efficiency. In the future, high-end brand business is expected to become an important growth engine for the company’s development.  Investment suggestion: We expect the company’s EPS in 19/20/21 to be 2 respectively.43/2.87/3.30 yuan, corresponding to PE is 27/23/20 times.Based on small kitchen appliances, Supor has firmly established its corporate strategy of quality and innovation, and has successfully achieved continuous expansion of its category. It is gradually growing into a leading consumer electronics company with broad future development space.In addition, according to the company’s profit distribution plan, the cash dividend rate in 2018 was as high as 72.77%.Based on the above, the target price is 73 yuan, corresponding to 30 times PE in 19 years, maintaining the “strong push” level.  Risk warning: industry competition intensifies; raw material prices rise.

Longji shares (601012) -Single crystal faucet stably expands production and profits rebound

Longji shares (601012) -Single crystal faucet stably expands production and profits rebound
Conclusions and recommendations: The company is the world’s largest producer of single crystal products. At the end of at least 18 years, the company had 28GW of monocrystalline silicon wafer capacity, 4GW of monocrystalline battery capacity and 885GW monocrystalline module production capacity.The company is still expanding its production capacity. It is expected that by the end of 19, it will have 36GW monocrystalline 杭州桑拿网 silicon wafer production capacity, 10GW monocrystalline battery production capacity and 16GW monocrystalline module production capacity. In the short term, the company’s performance elasticity is mainly contributed by the expansion of production; in the medium and long term, the cost of photovoltaic systems continues to decline. The Chinese market will realize photovoltaic divergence prices in 2021.The company is expected to have a net profit of 41 in 2019/2020.35/53.1.5 billion, an annual increase of 61.64% / 28.55%, EPS is 1.141/1.467 yuan, corresponding to 19 and 15 times the current expected PE, give a “buy” recommendation. Profitability stabilized and rebounded: In 2018, operating income was 220 billion yuan, an increase of 34% year-on-year, and the net profit of the mother was 25.$ 600 million, an average of 28% over a ten-year period.Mainly due to the industry’s “531” policy change, a sharp increase in the price of the industry chain has affected profitability.Since the third quarter of 2018, the outbreak of demand in overseas markets and the implementation of domestic policy amendments have continued to pick up the photovoltaic market.In the first quarter of 2019, operating income was 57.100 million US dollars, an annual increase of 65%, to achieve net profit attributable to mothers6.1ppm, an increase of 12 per year.5%.Gross profit margin from 18 years to 22%, product prices have stabilized since 19 years, the company continued to reduce costs and increase efficiency, the gross profit margin began to rise, the first quarter of 19 gross profit margin reached 24%. Overseas demand is heavy, and domestic demand has officially started: The significant decrease in the cost of photovoltaic systems has stimulated the outbreak of overseas demand. Since October 18, the overseas export volume of modules has increased rapidly.Exports gradually on November 12, 20188.2GWW, an annual increase of 59%, and the total export component volume in 2018 reached 39.3GW, an annual increase of over 50%.Since 19 years, overseas exports have continued to increase rapidly, with national exports increasing from January to May26.2GW, an annual increase of 84%.It is expected that the annual module export volume will exceed 60GW, and the annual volume will exceed 53%. On the domestic front, China ‘s photovoltaic policy was formally implemented at the end of May 19, and it is expected that the projects that were supplemented in early July will be officially announced, and domestic demand will start quickly in the second half of the year. The share of monocrystalline wafers has increased, and the supply is tight: The share of monocrystalline wafers has a duopoly form. At the end of 2018, Longji ‘s production capacity was 28GW, and Zhonghuan ‘s production capacity was 23GW, accounting for 77% in total.Longji plans to expand its production to 36GW / 50GW in 19/20, and Zhonghuan plans to reach 30GW at the end of 19th. It is expected that the two major manufacturers will add 13GW this year.On the demand side, after the market share of single crystal silicon wafers has rapidly increased, it is expected that the size of the single crystal market will increase by 35% and increase by 18GW.The overall supply of monocrystalline silicon wafers is tight this year, and it is expected that prices will remain in the second half of the year, and there is a basis for price increases. The cost advantage is significant, and the gross profit rate of silicon wafers is rapidly rising: the company’s production costs have continued to decline, and the non-silicon cost of silicon wafers has dropped by 20 in 18 years.75%, to reach 1 yuan / within, 19 years plan to drop at least 10%.The company’s silicon wafer gross profit level has been reduced to 16% in 18 years. At present, the total silicon wafer price has stabilized and continued to reduce costs. In the first quarter of 2019, the silicon wafer gross profit rate rose to 21.At 5%, the current gross margin of silicon wafers is estimated to be over 30%, and the profitability is considerable. Earnings forecast and investment advice: The company is expected to have a net profit of 41 in 2019/2020.35/53.1.5 billion, an annual increase of 61.64% / 28.55%, EPS is 1.141/1.467 yuan, corresponding to 19 and 15 times the current expected PE, give a “buy” recommendation. Risk warning: Overseas installations are less than expected, and domestic policies fluctuate.